System Maria

[jacekw80 0]

Na stronce http://www.professional-racing-tips.com/StakingPlanPages/summary.aspx

prezentują kilka metod stawkowania, może się komuś przydać.

[kapitansb 179]

Wyniki dzisiejsze :

15/18 ,skutecznosc 83.33% zysk 17.36 gbp

od poczatku :105/124 ,84.68 %

Dzis byla zabawna sytuacja w 2.goniwie dnia ,bieglo 11 koni ,tylko dwa pobiegly wlasciwa trasa ,po czym jeden jeszcze sie zorientowal i zawrocil .Niezatwierdzone wyniki podawaly za zwyciezce jednego z koni ,ktory pobiegl niewlasciwie ,potem jednak wszystkie osiem z niewlasciwej trasy zostaly zdyskwalifikowane .Ja mialem trzy lay'e w tym wyscigu -wszystkie pobiegly zle ,ale nieoficjalnie jeden z moich oslow -Rawaj figurowal jako zwyciezca ,potem jednak Betfair wyplacil -na poczatku wygladalo jakby byl zwrot .Ciekaw jestem jak potraktowano tych ,ktorzy grali IP -nie czytalem jeszcze zagranicznych for ,zaraz to zrobie ,moge sie tylko domyslac ,ze huczy po tej gonitwie . :-D

O tym ,ze ciagle jestem ignorantem ,przekonalem sie raz jeszcze .W ostatniej gonitwie w Wolv. -7 klasy zdziwilo mnie dlaczego kon ,ktory nie biegal za rewelacyjnie jest faworytem -okazalo sie ,ze biegal on srednio ale w gonitwach wyzszych klas .Dlatego doszla jeszcze jedna "drobnostka" na ktora trzeba zwracac uwage ,a ktora jest przy opisach gonitw .Oczywiscie przy tradingu przed offem nie ma to prawie zadnego znaczenia.

[kapitansb 179]

I jeszcze cos takiego ,co mi przyszlo do glowy ostatniej nocy :

Gdyby zalozyc ,ze Maria wystartowala z 3125 gbp (zeby bylo zgrabniej liczyc ) i podzielic czas na okresy w ktorych podwajala swoj kapital ,czyli kolejno osiagala 6.25k ,12.5 k ,25k ,50 k i w koncu 100 k ,to jak widac takich okresow jest piec .Poniewaz calosc zajela jej 303 dni ,wiec mozna stwierdzic ,ze jeden taki okres trwal srednio okolo 60 dni . Nastepnie korzystajac z reguly 72 ,wyliczymy ,ze sredni przyrost kapitalu dziennie wynosil 1.2 % .

I tu jest wlasnie potega procentu skladanego ,majac na rachunku np 100 -czy trudno jest wygrac 2 ?A to przeciez tylko 2% .

To jest to co Larry Williams mowi (legenda rynkow finansowych ) :To nie system czyni Cie bogatym ,ale odpowiedni MM .Larry podaje przyklad ,ze gdyby wystartowac w 1982 z kapitalem 50 tys usd i grac s&p 500 za 20 % kapitalu przy pewnych zalozeniach (nie bede pisal jakich ,bo nieistotne tutaj ) w 1998 roku byloby z tego 65 milinow baksow.A wie co mowi ,bo w 1987 zdobyl puchar swiata w tradingu -przez rok na realnym rachunku 10 tys zamienil w 1,1 miliona .10 lat pozniej te same trofeum zdobyla jego corka -aktorka . Wiec wszystko mozliwe .

No coz ,powodzenia i czekamy na pierwszego supertradera z tego forum .

[berix 4]

Kapitansb mam do Ciebie dwa pytania. Pierwsze ktora to byla gonitwa co takie jaja sie dzialy.., drugie to gdzie w opisie na racingpost mozna te klasy koni sprawdzic? A tak wogole to gratuluje skutecznosci!!! Na poziomie Mari jestes caly czas wiec juz niedlugo podwoisz swoj bank :-)

[kkriox 1]

Oczywiscie przy tradingu przed offem nie ma to prawie zadnego znaczenia.

Kapitan. A sprawdzasz np. aktualną wagę konia? Ma to wg. Ciebie duże znaczenie, tym bardziej posiadając wyniki przy poszczególnej wadze.

[kapitansb 179]

berix -12.40 Huntington ,mozesz ja obejrzec na RacesUK (RUK) jak sie zarejestrujesz -za darmo ,klasa-jak widzisz np.kod gonitwy na racingpost w opisach w ktorej kon bral udzial -C4HcH -znaczy gonitwa dla koni 4 klasy handicap przez przeszkody

kkriox-a jest gdzies ta waga podana ? nie mam pojecia na razie na logike idzie niezle ,choc zauwazylem jak zaczynam grac faworytow ,spada skutecznosc -trzeba obserwowac jak ida pieniadze jak sie gra za lub przeciw faworytowi -ja uwazam ,ze ogromna wiekszosc gonitw jest ustawiana(popatrzcie czasami jak sie dzokeje rozgladaja w czasie biegu ,czasami tez zamiast wysylac gonia po prostu go szarpia ).

http://www.tipstar.co.uk/forums/post/90/#postid_90 tutaj temat goscia ,ciagnal chyba z 70 dni ,potem przerwal -nie wiem dlaczego ,moze sie zniechecil ,moze uznal ,ze dziala i nie warto propagowac -tylko on zna odpowiedz .Doszedl do 983 z 500,potem sie zacial w okolicach 700-900 i w koncu zamilkl :-/ Ale popatrzec i poanalizowac jak gral warto .Zauwazylem ,ze duzo typowal faworytow ,chyba nie tedy droga .

Ja uwazam ,ze mozna to zrobic bo chociazby annoyed mowil ,ze mial dlugie serie po 100 z rzedu trafionych ,ja tez na poczatku mialem ok.25 jak nie majstrowalem przy faworytach .

[kkriox 1]

Ja uwazam ,ze mozna to zrobic bo chociazby annoyed mowil ,ze mial dlugie serie po 100 z rzedu trafionych ,ja tez na poczatku mialem ok.25 jak nie majstrowalem przy faworytach.

No właśnie próbuję coś w tym kierunku działać. I powiedzmy tylko dwa-trzy konie dziennie, ale już po analizie, typując te największe osły. I przeciw faworytom w ogóle nie stawiam.

Wagę masz podaną choćby na racingpost, albo w fairbotcie. Choć jeszcze za bardzo nie wiem o co w niej chodzi, jest podana waga konia, ale chyba też jokeya. W historii wyścigów przedstawione są wyniki osiągane przy jakiej wadze, dlatego pytałem się czy można to jakoś wykorzystać do analizy, i czy ma to znaczenie.

[kapitansb 179]

JAKO UZUPELNIENIE WATKU ORYGINALNY POST MARII(moze przeniesc go na poczatek) :

I've been reluctant to start off this thread, because I'm frightened of its turning out to be the kiss of death ... you have what you imagine to be a good system and start to explain it in public, and suddenly a wheel comes off ...* ???

I've come up with a laying system ...* ;D

I'll record its daily selections and results in this thread ... until I get jeered off, anyway ...* :-[

I'll try to post each day's selections by 1.00pm at the very latest, but I don't think I'll often manage to post them the night before.

Comments, general heckling and questions (but not about the details of my selection-process, please) are very welcome as we go along, but I'd better start off with something like an "FAQ" ...* 8)

STAKING: I want to minimise risks and maximise returns, of course (who doesn't?), which are always pretty difficult, not to say conflicting, objectives to combine. Like all forms of betting, the selections are only a part of the story. Betting on horses is notorious for people being able to have good selections and still lose money through poor money management. With laying in particular, IMHO the commonest reasons for failure are under-funding (not having a bank big enough for what you're trying to do) and disillusionment (getting too easily fed up with an inevitable losing run).

This isn't the time or place to get involved in a big discussion about whether the selections or the money management are more important - it suffices to say that without both aspects being good, sensible, reliable and proven, it's not possible to make steady profits ...*

The two common staking methods for laying are:-

(i) Laying to a fixed stake: I don't use this for two main reasons: first, the "accidents" are proportionally too expensive; secondly, it seems to me that it fails adequately to make the profits "deserved" after successfully identifying and laying shorter-priced losers.

(ii) Laying to a fixed liability: I don't use this either, because it's inherently mathematically unsound - it ignores the fact that accidents are far more likely to happen at the lower end of the scale: if I lay a 2/1 favourite (i.e. I lay it at an exchange price of 3.0), the overall risk of that bet losing (the horse winning) is of course higher than one which was a lay at 8.0 (7/1).

Instead I try to combine the best of both worlds by using what looks like a complicated mixture of the two systems mentioned above, but it's actually perfectly straightforward ...*

My staking system: I lay in three distinct exchange-price-bands of fixed backer's stakes.

At one end of the scale, if the exchange price available about the horse is less than 3.5 (less than 5/2), I lay to a stake of 1% of my current laying system bank. At the other end, if the price is between 7.5 and 11 (the latter figure being my cut-off: I don't lay anything higher than 10/1), I lay to a stake of 0.4% of my current bank. If the price is in-between these two bands (i.e. prices of 3.6 to 7.4), then I lay to a stake of 0.6% of my bank. As they say in those TV infommercials, "But wait - there's more!": I also combine this staking plan with a ratchet system (see below).

The are two other advantages with this staking system: first, the practicality of the situation when using the exchanges is that the backer's stake (rather than one's own liability) is the value which has to be typed into the little box on the screen, and this makes it quick and simple to do; secondly, nearly a year's figures have proven to me that this method minimises the variability of the results, and that's very, very important ...*

To summarise, with examples based on a starting bank of £3,000 (if you're reckless enough to try them, you can scale up or down proportionally to your own bank) ...

Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £30 (my liability under £75)

Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £18 (my liability £46.80 - £115.20)

Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £12 (my liability £78 - £132)

Ratchet System

If making profits, I increase all stakes in proportion to the bank on a daily basis. (I'd love to do it on a bet-by-bet basis, but that would assume that anyone following the system can be glued to their screen all afternoon, which isn't realistic. If you're working for a living - shock horror: please excuse my language! - you need to be able to put the bets on your lunch-hour.)

This means that at the end of each day, the next day's "current bank" figure is known. For example, if there's a good start and the £3,000 bank grows, then the stakes are worked out as proportion of the new higher figure, and increase slightly the next day. This may sound insignificant but it makes a huge difference to the results ...*

In contrast, after a losing day, I don't reduce stakes unless and until 35% of the highest level of the bank is lost, when I essentially re-start using the same percentages, but now of the new "65%-sized bank" ...* :-\

Example: from a £3,000 start, if there's a net loss on the first day, the next day I still stake as if from a bank of £3,000 (i.e. to backer's stakes of £30, £18 and £12 depending on the price about each selection) until reaching £1,950 when those backer's stakes would become £19.50, £11.70 and £7.80 until the bank gets back up to £3,000 again (or - dare I mention it? - down to £1267.50 - a further 35% loss).

The 35% drop is always worked out from the highest point of the bank. If it happens (and so far it hasn't - famous last words?!) I'll explain it again.

It may sound a bit complicated but it's actually very simple. Not easy, but very simple ...* :

Please don't imagine that I'm claiming this to be a perfect laying system. There are one or two anomalies in it, but after lots of analysis and calculation in the early days, over the last year I've found this system practicable, straightforward and robust. And that's what matters.

In the next post, I'll complete the "FAQ" and hope to cover the practicalities ...* :-*

__________________

maria santonix

[kapitansb 179]

NR2

OTHER CONSIDERATIONS/PRACTICALITIES ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AND ITS RESULTS

(i) It's essential to keep (at the very least on paper) a separate bank for this system: the money can, if unavoidable, be mixed up in an account with other betting funds, but at the very least the "books" must be kept separately, otherwise you don't know where you are - it's not possible to win in the long run without keeping good records ... oooh, contentious! ...*

(ii) Terminology: there's always understandable confusion about discussing laying. For the record, if there's any apparent ambiguity, I'm always referring to the bet rather than the horse. So if I say that out of the day's selections, three won and one lost, and that the day's strike-rate was 75%, I mean that three of the horses lost and one was a winner on which I paid out. (But if that's the actual strike-rate every day, we won't get far: mixed-price-bracket laying systems generally need a very high strike-rate).

(iii) This is a slow and steady system, not a get-rich-quick scheme, and any attempt to turn it into that, or to escalate the stakes when losing, is destined for disaster. With laying, in particular, the swings and arrows of outrageous fortune can be particularly vicious, and it's all too easy for gradually accumulated profits to be wiped out quickly by an uncharacteristically unlucky run. I hope that my staking system allows for this, to a large degree ...*

(iv) Some of the selections tend to shorten in price and others tend to drift. The reality is that it's not possible, overall, to lay at SP and I would therefore be misleading people about my profits if I quoted the results to SP. So I'm going to keep two separate sets of results ...

1. SP + 10%: These results will quote all prices to SP + 10% (i.e. as if the price, from the layer's point of view, was 10% worse than SP).

2. My own actual results, recording the prices I've found and used.

No method of doing this is going to be perfect, but before deciding on this method of keeping the results, I've talked it over with the Administrator and we've decided, hopefully, that this "double results" system is the least open to criticism ...* :-X

(v) If a selection is priced at more than 11 on the exchanges when I first look at it (and this really isn't going to happen often, because they make me nervous), then with one exception I leave my bet unmatched at 11 and just wait and see what happens. The exception is that if it's priced at more than 14 to lay, I cross it off the list completely and don't even go back to look at it again (this is a half-hearted attempt to avoid becoming the victim of any "major coups"). In the "starting-price + 10% results", I won't be recording as a bet anything that set off at more than 10/1.

(vi) The exchanges charge a variable commission on profits. I'm going to allow for the highest commission at the most expensive of the exchanges, and deduct 5% from all wins. (Note that this is calculated on a "per event" basis, so if you lay two or more horses in a race, the commission is charged only on your net profit on that race.)

(vii) This is (comparatively, at least) a "high turnover" system. The idea is that every bet made represents "value" and has a positive expectation, and therefore the more of them there are, the better the returns. It's not for the faint-hearted! Back these with real money at your own risk and never with money that you can't afford to lose.

(viii) I've found that it's nearly always a mistake to "pick and choose" with this system. Lay all the selections (that can be done within the cut-off of 11) or none of them.

(ix) When I put the bets on, I don't always just take the best current price, depending partly on how much of a hurry I'm in and whether I have shoe-shopping plans for the afternoon. Unless I think the price is particularly likely to lengthen (see "Lay, Back and Think of Winning" by Nigel Paul for the best simple explanation of how you can judge this), I'm likely to leave my lay unmatched at a price in-between what's available to back and what's available to back. Usually my lay will get matched. But I only do this if I can keep an eye on it, and change my mind quickly about what price to lay at if the market moves against me ...* ???

(x) Within my cut-off of 11, the market moving against me when I have an unmatched bet is not a reason for me to abandon a lay: if it's part of the system and it's not above 11, I lay it.

(xi) The overwhelming majority of the lays in this thread will be win lays, but there will be the occasional place lay included too. These are much rarer, but I have a very high strike-rate with them ...* ;D

(xii) Patience and discipline lead to profits ...* ;D* ;D* ;D

Tomorrow (Saturday 3rd September) is Day 1 ...* 8)

__________________

[kapitansb 179]

No właśnie próbuję coś w tym kierunku działać. I powiedzmy tylko dwa-trzy konie dziennie, ale już po analizie, typując te największe osły. I przeciw faworytom w ogóle nie stawiam.

Jak zaczniesz z takim samym bankiem jak Maria ,bedziesz gral 4 lata . :-D

No ale oczywiscie do zobaczenia na szczycie ! :-)

[kkriox 1]

Jak zaczniesz z takim samym bankiem jak Maria ,bedziesz gral 4 lata . :-D

No ale oczywiscie do zobaczenia na szczycie ! :-)

Nie, bo zmieniłem u mnie stawkowanie. Mnie interesuje 1%. Przeanalizuj np. z 500-1000 funtów 1% dziennie, wliczając to później do kapitału, dodając co określony czas np. 100 funtów z pracy. Już po krótszym czasie powstaje ładna suma.

[kapitansb 179]

Nie, bo zmieniłem u mnie stawkowanie. Mnie interesuje 1%. Przeanalizuj np. z 500-1000 funtów 1% dziennie, wliczając to później do kapitału, dodając co określony czas np. 100 funtów z pracy. Już po krótszym czasie powstaje ładna suma.

Wszystko ladnie ,pieknie jak uda Ci sie robic ten jeden procent systematycznie dzien w dzien przez dlugi okres czasu .

Jak napisalem poprzednio u Marii bylo to 1,2 %.

[Scorpi 210]

Radzę przestrzec iż Maria s. to jest tylko system dobrego stawkowania :!: W połączeniu z dobrymi typami- w dłuższej jednostce musimy wyjść na plus.

[kapitansb 179]

Czarny dzien dzisiaj :evil:

Szlo wszystko gladko ,jednak specyfika tej zabawy jest taka ,ze jak pod koniec 4 twoje osly wygrywaja gonitwy wszystko sie odwraca -powoli sie idzie do przodu a szybko spada -jest in minus a tyle samo powinno byc in plus .

21/28 75 % strata =-33.69

od poczatku :126/152 skutecznosc 82.23 % ,czyli juz ponizej Marii :-/

[Scorpi 210]

www.dailydonkeys.com

Strona na której lay'uja konie. Gdy jeszcze było pokazane archiwum,- mieli wysoką skuteczność, prawie każdy miesiąc na plus. Przeważnie jednak,- ukazane kursy były zawyżone (rachunek wg sP). Mimo wszystko, grając ich typy i tak byłoby się na plus, lecz nie tak duży.

[kapitansb 179]

www.dailydonkeys.com

Strona na której lay'uja konie. Gdy jeszcze było pokazane archiwum,- mieli wysoką skuteczność, prawie każdy miesiąc na plus. Przeważnie jednak,- ukazane kursy były zawyżone (rachunek wg sP). Mimo wszystko, grając ich typy i tak byłoby się na plus, lecz nie tak duży.

Ta strona to jest scam ,wielokrotnie juz walkowany na roznych forach.

[kkriox 1]

Potwierdzam. Ostatnio np. na stronie pojawiły się propozycje już po wyścigach.

[berix 4]

Tak sie zastanawiam czy czytal ktos wogole mojego posta z 2011-01-13, 20:46. Nie bylo zadnej odpowiedzi a mysle ze warto sprawdzic. Ja tak gralem na wszsytkich gonitwach 14.01 - 27 wyscigow. Jeden z nich mi weszedl i ogolnie bylem 6,5e do przodu. Strasznie duzo klikaniea jest przy tym sposobie gdyz kadzego konia trzeba zleyowac po 1,01 a w niektorych gonitwach jest ich az 18. Co myslicie o tej taktyce?